Incorporating spotting into a simple fire perimeter model

Predicting the behavior of a fire which produces spot fires can be very difficult for managers. A simple, deterministic, mechanistic model for predicting the perimeter of a fire with active spotting will contribute to the current suite of tools used in the field. The model I developed of fire spread builds upon an established model from biological invasion theory known as the coalescing colony model. The model incorporates other existing, mechanistic fire behavior models to predict the perimeter of a fire as it grows by diffusion and coalescence with spot fires ahead of the front. The result of manipulating the biological invasion model is a system integro-differential equations that describe the progression of the main fire front and are capable of accounting for dispersal variability. My model was verified using a stochastic, computer simulation that supported both the qualitative and quantitative outcomes of the mathematical model. Because of its simplicity, the model can readily be incorporated into existing simulation and model packages.